Bulletin of KSAU Bulletin of KSAU Вестник КрасГАУ 1819-4036 105231 10.36718/1819-4036-2026-4-114-126 rzzqvr Зоотехния и ветеринария Animal breeding and veterinary surgery Зоотехния и ветеринария ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS INFLUENCE ON THE RISK OF BOVINE LSD SPREAD IN SOUTHEAST ASIA (2020–2024) ВЛИЯНИЕ ФАКТОРОВ ОКРУЖАЮЩЕЙ СРЕДЫ НА РИСК РАСПРОСТРАНЕНИЯ ЗУД КРС В ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНОЙ АЗИИ (2020–2024 гг.) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2656-888X Подшибякин Дмитрий Васильевич Podshibyakin Dmitry Vasil'evich podshibyakin@list.ru

кандидат биологических наук;

candidate of sciences in biology;

 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8402-6798 Падило Лариса Павловна Padilo Larisa Pavlovna Dr.dream555@yandex.ru

кандидат биологических наук;

candidate of sciences in biology;

 Агольцов Валерий Александрович Agoltsov Valeriy Aleksandrovich agoltsov-saratov@yandex.ru Ступина Людмила Викторовна Stupina Lyudmila Viktorovna stupinalv58@mail.ru

кандидат ветеринарных наук;

candidate of veterinary sciences;

 ООО "Научно-исследовательский институт технологий органической, неорганической химии и биотехнологий" Саратов Россия Scientific Research Institute of Organic and Inorganic Chemistry Technologies and Biotechnology LLC Saratov Russian Federation ФГБОУ ВО «Саратовский государственный университет генетики, биотехнологии и инженерии им. Н. И. Вавилова» Россия ФГБОУ ВО «Саратовский государственный университет генетики, биотехнологии и инженерии им. Н. И. Вавилова» Russian Federation Саратовский государственный аграрный университет им. Н.И. Вавилова ru Saratov State Agricultural University named after N.I. Vavilov ru Саратовский государственный аграрный университет имени Н.И.Вавилова Saratov State Agrarian University named after N.I.Vavilov 01 06 2026 01 06 2026 4 114 126 09 10 2025 https://sej.kgau.ru/en/nauka/article/105231/view

Цель исследования – оценка влияния природных и антропогенных факторов на риск распрос-транения вируса ЗУД КРС на территории Юго-Восточной Азии в 2020–2024 гг. Оценку проводи-ли, моделируя методом максимальной энтропии экологические ниши возбудителя, занимаемые им в каждой из трех климатических зон Индокитая и Малайского архипелага: зоне тропического влажного климата, зоне тропического муссонного климата и зоне тропических саванн с сухой зимой. Для моделирования использовалась информация о локализации 1315 вспышек ЗУД КРС, зарегистрированных Продовольственной и сельскохозяйственной организацией ООН в указанный период. Наивысшая вероятность возникновения новых вспышек заболевания приходится на территории с плотностью автодорожной сети свыше 200 м/км2, плотностью поголовья вос-приимчивого скота более 20 голов/10 км2, количеством осадков во время самого теплого квар-тала года не более 1200 мм и среднегодовой скоростью ветра не более 2,7 м/с. Кроме этого, в зонах с тропическим влажным и тропическим муссонным климатом наблюдается повышенный риск на территориях с преобладанием распаханных земель. В зоне с тропическим влажным кли-матом и зоне саванн с сухой зимой лимитирующим фактором является среднее количество осадков, выпадающих в месяц. В первом случае риск снижается при данном показателе, превы-шающем 280 мм, во втором – 160 мм. В целом главенствующую роль в геопространственном распределении риска возникновения вспышек играют антропогенные факторы. Наиболее под-вержены риску развития эпизоотии центральные, восточные, северо-восточные и южные райо-ны Таиланда, южные районы Камбоджи, побережья полуострова Малакка (Малайзия), центральные и южные районы Вьетнама, а также центральные районы острова Суматра (Индонезия).

The objective of the study is to assess the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the risk of bovine LSD virus (BLSD) spread in Southeast Asia in 2020–2024. The assessment was conducted using maximum entropy modeling of the pathogen's ecological niches in each of the three climatic zones of In-dochina and the Malay Archipelago: a tropical humid climate zone, a tropical monsoon climate zone, and a tropical savannah zone with dry winters. Information on the localization of 1,315 BLSD outbreaks regis-tered by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations during the specified period was used for the modeling. The highest probability of new outbreaks occurs in areas with a road network density exceeding 200 m/km2, a susceptible cattle population density exceeding 20 heads/10 km2, precipitation du¬ring the warmest quarter of the year no more than 1,200 mm, and an average annual wind speed of no more than 2.7 m/s. Furthermore, in tropical humid and tropical monsoon climates, the risk is higher in areas with predominantly cultivated land. In tropical humid climates and savannah zones with dry winters, the limiting factor is the average monthly precipitation. In the former, the risk decreases when the average monthly precipitation exceeds 280 mm, while in the latter, it decreases when the average monthly precipi-tation exceeds 160 mm. On the whole, anthropogenic factors play a dominant role in the geospatial distri-bution of outbreak risk. Those most at risk for epizootic outbreaks include the central, eastern, northeast-tern, and southern regions of Thailand, southern Cambodia, the coast of the Malay Peninsula (Malaysia), central and southern Vietnam, and central Sumatra (Indonesia).

 ЗУД КРС факторы окружающей среды геопространственный анализ климатические зоны LSD environmental factors geospatial analysis climatic zones tropical climate

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