employee from 01.01.2023 until now
Saratov, Saratov, Russian Federation
Russian Federation
employee
Saratov, Russian Federation
VAK Russia 4.1.1
VAK Russia 4.1.2
VAK Russia 4.1.3
VAK Russia 4.1.4
VAK Russia 4.1.5
VAK Russia 4.2.1
VAK Russia 4.2.2
VAK Russia 4.2.4
VAK Russia 4.2.5
VAK Russia 4.3.3
VAK Russia 4.3.5
UDC 636.09
UDC 578.4
UDC 578.427
The objective of the study is to assess the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the risk of bovine LSD virus (BLSD) spread in Southeast Asia in 2020–2024. The assessment was conducted using maximum entropy modeling of the pathogen's ecological niches in each of the three climatic zones of In-dochina and the Malay Archipelago: a tropical humid climate zone, a tropical monsoon climate zone, and a tropical savannah zone with dry winters. Information on the localization of 1,315 BLSD outbreaks regis-tered by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations during the specified period was used for the modeling. The highest probability of new outbreaks occurs in areas with a road network density exceeding 200 m/km2, a susceptible cattle population density exceeding 20 heads/10 km2, precipitation du¬ring the warmest quarter of the year no more than 1,200 mm, and an average annual wind speed of no more than 2.7 m/s. Furthermore, in tropical humid and tropical monsoon climates, the risk is higher in areas with predominantly cultivated land. In tropical humid climates and savannah zones with dry winters, the limiting factor is the average monthly precipitation. In the former, the risk decreases when the average monthly precipitation exceeds 280 mm, while in the latter, it decreases when the average monthly precipi-tation exceeds 160 mm. On the whole, anthropogenic factors play a dominant role in the geospatial distri-bution of outbreak risk. Those most at risk for epizootic outbreaks include the central, eastern, northeast-tern, and southern regions of Thailand, southern Cambodia, the coast of the Malay Peninsula (Malaysia), central and southern Vietnam, and central Sumatra (Indonesia).
LSD, environmental factors, geospatial analysis, climatic zones, tropical climate
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